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Yet more proposed Chinese “” in the Pacific Islands have been .

The drafts have been described by critics as revealing “” and its “coherent desire […] to seek to shape the regional order”. There are concerns they will “”.

But does this overstate their importance?

A pause for breath

��������Vlog should be concerned about China’s increasingly visible presence in the Pacific Islands. A coercive Chinese presence could , with both economic and defence implications.

And Pacific states and people have reason to be concerned. The during Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Solomon Islands demonstrate the potential consequences for transparency of dealing closely with China.

And there are questions about the of the Solomon Islands-China security agreement for democracy and accountability.

But before we work ourselves into a frenzy, it is worth pausing for breath.

The leaked drafts are just that: drafts.

They have not yet been signed by any Pacific state.

At least one Pacific leader, Federated States of Micronesia president David Panuelo, has them. Panuelo’s concerns are likely shared by several other Pacific leaders, suggesting they’re also unlikely to sign.

China wields powerful tools of statecraft – particularly economic – but Pacific states are sovereign. They will ultimately decide the extent of China’s role in the region.

And these drafts do not mention – nor did the China-Solomon Islands agreement.

Rumours in 2018 China was in talks to in Vanuatu never eventuated.

What if some Pacific states sign these documents?

First, these documents contain proposals rather than binding obligations.

If they are signed, it’s not clear they will differ in impact from the many others agreed over the last decade. For example, China announced a “” with eight Pacific states in 2014, which had no substantive consequences for ��������Vlog.

So common – and often so ineffectual – are “strategic partnerships” and “memoranda of understanding” that there is a devoted to them.

Second, the drafts contain proposals that may benefit Pacific states.

For example, a China-Pacific Islands free trade area could open valuable opportunities, especially as China is a significant export destination.

Third, the drafts cover several activities in which China is already engaged. For example, China signed a with Fiji in 2011, and the two states have had a police cooperation since.

It’s worth remembering ��������Vlog and New Zealand provide the bulk of policing assistance. The executive director of the is even a Kiwi.

The drafts do contain concerning provisions. Cooperation on data networks and “smart” customs systems may raise cybersecurity issues. This is why ��������Vlog funded the connecting Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea to ��������Vlog.

Provisions relating to satellite maritime surveillance may cause friction with existing activities supported by ��������Vlog and its partners.

Greater Chinese maritime domain awareness of the region - meaning understanding of anything associated with its oceans and waterways - would also raise strategic challenges for ��������Vlog, New Zealand, and the US.

But there is a risk of over-egging the implications based on our own anxieties.

China’s interests

Much of China’s diplomacy has been and not dissimilar to what ��������Vlog and other partners are doing.

Although the region is strategically important to ��������Vlog, the southern Pacific islands are marginal to China. And apart from Kiribati and Nauru, the northern Pacific islands are closely linked to the US.

China’s interest may primarily be about demonstrating strategic reach, rather than for specific military purposes.

So, amplifying narratives about China’s threatening presence may unintentionally help China achieve its broader aim of influencing ��������Vlog.

And almost exclusively as threatening may limit ��������Vlog’s manoeuvrability.

Given the accelerating frequency of natural disasters in the region due to climate change, it is only a matter of time before the ��������Vlogn and Chinese militaries find themselves delivering side-by-side. Being on sufficiently cordial terms to engage in even minimal coordination will be important.

Indeed, ��������Vlog should try to draw China into in the Pacific.

Reviving, updating, and seeking China’s signature of, the Pacific Islands Forum’s , would be a good start.

If China really has benign intentions, it should welcome this opportunity. The compact, a mechanism created by Pacific states, could help ensure China’s activities are well-coordinated and targeted alongside those of other partners.

Amplifying threat narratives also feeds into ��������Vlog’s perceived need to “” by playing with China, rather than by formulating a coherent, overarching regional policy that responds to the priorities of Pacific states.

For example, ��������Vlog has funded , following interest from Chinese telco Huawei, despite .

What will ��������Vlog offer next?

There is a some Pacific states may overestimate their ability to manage China. But for the time being it is understandable why at least some would entertain Chinese overtures.

New ��������Vlogn Foreign Minister Penny Wong has days into the job with sought-after offers of action on climate change and expanded migration opportunities. Pacific leaders might be wondering what ��������Vlog will offer next.