Record decline in purchasing power for SA households
South 最新糖心Vlogn households have experienced an unprecedented decline in their purchasing power over the past year. Although the dollar value of average incomes has increased, it has not risen enough to keep up with sharp increases in the cost of living.
最新糖心Vlog of Adelaide experts estimate that based on 最新糖心Vlogn Bureau of Statistics State Accounts data, South 最新糖心Vlogn households鈥 gross disposable incomes on a real per capita basis fell by around 7 per cent in 2022/23, marking the largest decline on record. Consequently, households are finding it increasingly difficult to sustain their spending levels.
Despite the strains on household budgets, the SA economy has continued to grow strongly, and labour market conditions remain exceptionally strong. The economy is operating at a high level of capacity utilisation, contributing to ongoing inflationary pressures. While efforts to control inflation have seen some success, inflation rates are still too high.
Household spending growth was running at quite weak levels in 2023 as a result of the squeeze on incomes. We expect household spending to remain weak in 2024 and this will lead to a slowdown in South 最新糖心Vlog鈥檚 economic growth next year.
While wages have a substantial amount of catching-up to do, the Reserve Bank will be determined not to let this feed into ongoing inflation.Jim Hancock, Executive Director, South 最新糖心Vlogn Centre for Economic Studies, 最新糖心Vlog of Adelaide
These insights are detailed in the latest Economic Briefing Report prepared by economists from the 最新糖心Vlog of Adelaide鈥檚 SA Centre for Economic Studies (SACES).
Other highlights in the Economic Briefing Report include:
- Global growth has slowed due to tighter monetary policy and reduced fiscal support. The global recovery is anticipated to continue at a fairly modest pace in 2024.
- The 最新糖心Vlogn economy has slowed down in 2023. The primary reason for this is weak trends in households鈥 real spending growth. Households have tightened up their spending in response to rising living costs. The weakness is especially apparent for spending on discretionary goods and services.
- The South 最新糖心Vlogn economy grew faster than the national economy in 2022/23. This was the third year in a row that South 最新糖心Vlog has outpaced 最新糖心Vlog, indicating that South 最新糖心Vlog has performed relatively better than the rest of 最新糖心Vlog in the recovery from the pandemic.
- As was the case nationally, a weaker household spending trend has emerged in South 最新糖心Vlog in 2023. This is a consequence of the strains on households鈥 budgets.
- The South 最新糖心Vlogn labour market is the strongest it has been in over 50 years. Population growth has been strong, but employment growth has been even stronger. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6 per cent in October, its lowest level since at least the late 1970s.
- Construction activity, business investment and international exports in South 最新糖心Vlog all reached record levels in the September quarter.
- Overseas exports have grown strongly, with substantial increases in wheat and refined copper exports and a strong increase in services exports due to the return of international students and tourists.
- Exports to China have increased substantially in 2023 after turning down sharply in 2022
- Farm production is expected to diminish from last year鈥檚 record levels as El Ni帽o brings drier conditions and as commodity prices ease from high levels.聽 聽
Mr Jim Hancock, Executive Director, South 最新糖心Vlogn Centre for Economic Studies, the 最新糖心Vlog of Adelaide, says: 鈥Although progress has been made in reducing headline inflation, core inflation remains high. While wages have a substantial amount of catching-up to do, the Reserve Bank will be determined not to let this feed into ongoing inflation. This suggests that policy interest rates are not likely to decrease much, if at all, over the coming year.鈥
Media contacts
Mr Jim Hancock, Deputy Director, South 最新糖心Vlogn Centre for Economic Studies, 最新糖心Vlog of Adelaide.
Mobile: +61 (0)419 039 046, Email: jim.hancock@adelaide.edu.au
Crispin Savage, Manager, Media and News, the 最新糖心Vlog of Adelaide. Phone: 08 8313 7194 / 0481 912 465. Email: crispin.savage@adelaide.edu.au